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Prediction for CME (2025-07-23T04:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-07-23T04:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40201/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the East in STEREO A COR2 and as a faint partial halo to the East in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. Source is a small filament seen lifting off at 2025-07-23T02:06Z. Post-eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 304 spanning from S00 to S10 and from W15 to W25, but the filamentary material itself can be seen lifting off as far north as N20E05. POSSIBLE arrival observed around 2025-07-26T07:37Z characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components (Btotal maximum: 11nT) followed by a smooth rotation, likely indicating the presence a flux rope. A gradual increase in solar wind speed was also observed from ~480 to 580 km/s. From Sanchita Pal, LASSOS team: The start time of the flux rope is likely around 2025-07-26T16:20Z, after that the density and temperature decrease. Before this timestamp, density is high. This preceding signature with high density could be because a pile-up of the solar wind material or could be a sheath. Inside the flux rope B_radial component is high, it means the flux rope can be crossed with a larger distance from the center to the spacecraft propagation path. Mostly small/no-rotation in field line vector means either(1) the CME flux rope is crossed through flank or (2) the flux rope is crossed by spacecraft keeping a large distance from the center.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-07-26T07:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-28T08:45Z (-11.07h, +6.74h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 66.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2025/07/23 05:15Z
Plane of Sky 1: 21:30Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 22:30Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
POS Difference: 1:00
POS Midpoint: 22:00Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 16:45

Numeric View/Impact Type: +2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.37
Travel Time: ~7.37 * 16:45 = 123:30

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-07-28T08:45Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/07/24 03:40Z

Lead Time: 51.53 hour(s)
Difference: -49.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-07-24T04:05Z

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